Red Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Centre

Journal Articles


Agrawala, S. and M.K. van Aalst (2008) Adapting Development Co-operation to Adapt to Climate Change, Climate Policy, 8, 183-193.

Alfieri L, Cohen S, Galantowicz J, Schumann G, Trigg MA, Zsoter E, Prudhomme C, Kruczkiewicz A, Coughlan de Perez E, Flamig Z, Rudari R, Wu H, Adler RF, Brakenridge RG, Kettner A, Weerts A, Matgen P, Islam S, de Groeve T, Salamon P. A global network for operational flood risk reduction. 2017. Environmental Science and Policy. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.03.014

Arnal L, Ramos M, Coughlan E, et al. 2016. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. doi:10.5194/hess-2016-20.

Arrighi, J. and Walker, G. (2014) “Participatory Video and Games for a New ClimateLeonardo, Vol 47, No.5


Bachofen, C., Sunstrom, R., Iqbal, F. Y. and Suarez, P. (2014). Participation, learning and innovation in adaptation to climate change: Development & Climate Days 2013. Climate and Development 7(2): 192-195.

Baumhardt, F., Lasage, R., Suarez, P., and Chadza, C. (2009). Farmers become filmmakers: climate change adaptation in Malawi. Participatory Learning and Action 60: 129-138.

Bischiniotis, K., van den Hurk, B., Zsoter, E., Coughlan de Perez, E., Grillakis, M., and Aerts, J.C.J.H. Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru. 2019. Hydrological Sciences Journal 1-19.

Bischiniotis, Konstantinos, Bart van den Hurk, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Ted Veldkamp, Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, and Jeroen Aerts. Assessing time, cost and quality trade-offs in forecast-based action for floods. 2019. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 40: 101252.

Bischiniotis K, van den Hurk B, Jongman B, Coughlan de Perez E, Veldkamp T, de Moel H, Aerts J. The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa. 2018. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 18. 271-285. doi: 10.5194/nhess-18-271-2018.

Braman, L., van Aalst, M., Suarez, P., Mason, S., Tall, A. and Ait-Chellouche, Y. (2013). Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008. Disasters 37 (1): 144-164, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2012.01297.x

Braman, L., Suarez, P. and van Aalst, M. K. (2010). Climate change adaptation: integrating climate science into humanitarian work. International Review of the Red Cross 92 (879): 693-712.


Carr, E.R., Abrahams, D., De la Poterie, A.T., Suarez, P. and Koelle, B. (2015). Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies 7:(1) Art. #201, 17 pages.

Costella, C., Jaime, C., Arrighi, J., Coughlan de Perez, E., Suarez, P. and van Aalst, M. (2017).  Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems. IDS Bulletin 48 (4): 31-46.

Costella, C. and Manjolo, I., (2010), Design and Implementation of Public Works Programs through Social Funds. Social Funds Innovation Notes, Vol. 6, No. 1, June 2010. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M.K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongman, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E., Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J. and Zsoter, E. (2016). Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action.  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. doi: 10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016.

Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M., Jongman, B., Klose, T. and Suarez, P. (2015). Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 15 (4): 895-904.

Couglan de Perez, E., Monasso, F., van Aalst, M. and Suarez, P. (2014). Science to prevent disasters. Nature Geoscience 7 (2): 78-79.

Coughlan de Perez, E., van Aalst, M.K., Choularton, R., van den Hurk, B., Mason, S., Nissan, H., Schwager, S. From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa. 2019. Food Security. doi:10.1007/s12571-018-00885-9

Coughlan de Perez E, van Aalst MK, Bischiniotis K, Mason S, Nissan H, Pappenberger F, Stephens E, Zsoter E, van den Hurk B. Global predictability of temperature extremes. 2018. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a.

Coughlan de Perez, E., L. Nerlander, F. Monasso, M.K. van Aalst, G. Mantilla, E. Muli, Thuan Nguyen, G. Rose, and C. Rumbaitis Del Rio (2014) Managing health risks in a changing climate: Red Cross operations in East Africa and Southeast Asia, Climate and Development, doi: 10.1080/17565529.2014.951012

Coughlan de Perez E, Stephens E, Bischiniotis K, et al. 2017. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrol Earth Syst Sci. doi:10.5194/hess-2017-40.

Coughlan de Perez E, and Mason SJ. 2014. Climate Information for Humanitarian Agencies: Some Basic Principles. Earth Perspectives 1 (1): 11. doi:10.1186/2194-6434-1-11.


Dal Farra, R. and Suarez, P. (2014). Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre and Balance-Unbalance: The art! x climate Project. Leonardo doi:10.1162/LEON_a_00818.

Daly, M., N. Balfour, M. Hellmuth, S. Mason, J. Kirsch-Wood, and M. van Aalst (2010) Findings of the East Africa Humanitarian Climate Risk Management Workshop. IRI Technical Report 10-05. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, 43 pp. 


Green, J. L., de Weck, O.L. and Suarez, P. (2013). Evaluating the Economic Sustainability of Sanitation Logistics in Senegal. Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management 3 (1): 7-21.

Greatrex H, Borges D, Kruczkiewicz A, Flamig Z, Schumann G. Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Global Flood Risk Monitoring (GFRM) Community Activity. Geophysical Research Abstracts. 2019;21:1.

Gros, Clemens, Meghan Bailey, Saroja Schwager, Ahmadul Hassan, Raymond Zingg, Muhammad Mamtaz Uddin, Mohammad Shahjahan, Hasibul Islam, Stefanie Lux, and Catalina Jaime. Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh. 2019. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 41: 101275.


Harteveld, C. and Suarez, P. (2015). Guest editorial: games for learning and dialogue on humanitarian work. Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management 5 (1): 61-72.

Harvey, Blane & Jones, Lindsey & Cochrane, Logan & Singh, Roop. (2019). The evolving landscape of climate services in sub-Saharan Africa: What roles have NGOs played?. Climatic Change. Doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02410-z.


Jones, L., Dougill, A., Jones, R., Steynor, A., Watkiss, P., Kane, C., Koelle, B., Moufouma-Okia, W., Padgham, J., Ranger, N., Roux, J.P., Suarez, P., Tanner, T. and Vincent, K. (2015).  Ensuring climate information guides long-term development. Nature Climate Change 5: 812-814.

Jongman B, Winsemius HC, Aerts JCJH, Coughlan de Perez E, van Aalst M, Kron W, and Ward PJ. 2015. Declining Vulnerability to River Floods and the Global Benefits of Adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the USA, 1–10. doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

Jongman B, Wagemaker J, Revilla-Romero B, Coughlan de Perez E. 2015. Early Flood Detection for Rapid Humanitarian Response: Harnessing Near Real-Time Satellite and Twitter Signals ISPRS Int J Geo-Information. 2015:2246-2266. doi:10.3390/ijgi4042246.

Juhola, S., Driscoll, P., Mendler de Suarez, J. and  Suarez, P. (2013). Social strategy games in communicating trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation in cities. Urban Climate 4:102-116.


Karol, J. and Suarez, P. (2007). Adaptación al cambio climático, estructuras fractales y trampas discursivas: De la construcción del objeto a la construcción de la acción. Medio Ambiente y Urbanización 67: 25-44.

Kilavi, M., MacLeod, D., Ambani, M., Robbins, J., Dankers, R., Graham, R., Titley, H., Salih, A.A.M., Todd, M.C. Extreme Rainfall and Flooding over Central Kenya Including Nairobi City during the Long-Rains Season 2018: Causes, Predictability, and Potential for Early Warning and Actions. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 472.

Kuriakose, A. T., Heltberg, R., Wiseman, W., Costella, C., Cipryk, R., & Cornelius, S. (2013). “Climate-responsive social protection” in Development Policy Review, 31(SUPPL.2), 19–34.


Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Suarez, P., Victor, M. and Mechler, R. (2009). Drought insurance for subsistence farmers in Malawi. Natural Hazards Observer 33 (5): 1-8.

Lopez, A., Coughlan de Perez, E., Bazo, J., Suarez, P., van den Hurk, B. and van Aalst, M. (in Press). Bridging forecast verification and humanitarian decisions: A valuation approach for setting up action-oriented early warnings. In press at Weather and Climate Extremes.


Mendler de Suarez, J. (2011) Achieving equitable water use in the Nile Basin: Time to refocus the discourse on collective human security? Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 28, Issue 129.

Mendler, J., Simon, D., and Broome, P. (2002) Virtual Development and Virtual Geographies: using the Internet to teach interactive distance courses in the global South. Journal of Geography in Higher Education, Vol. 26, No. 3.


Nissan H., Burkart K, Coughlan de Perez E, van Aalst M, Mason S. Defining and Predicting Heat Waves in Bangladesh. 2017. J Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2653-2670. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0035.1.

Nissan, H., Goddard, L., Coughlan de Perez, E., Furlow, J., Baethgen, W., Thomson, M. C., & Mason, S. J. On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development. 2019. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, e579.


van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., Kew, S., Sjouke, P., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., van Aalst, M., (2018) Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution, BAMS, in press

van Oldenborgh, G.J., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G., Cullen, H., (2017) Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ. Res. Lett. 12 124009

Otto, F, Coelho C, King A, Coughlan de Perez E, Wada Y, van Oldenborgh GJ, Haarsma R, Haustein K, Uhe P, van Aalst M, Aravequia JA, Almeida W, and Cullen H. 2015. Factors Other than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, no. September. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00120.1.

Otto, F., Wolski, P., Lehner, F., Tebaldi, C., Van Oldenborgh, G., Hogesteeger, S., & Singh, R., Holden, P., Fuckar, N., Odoulami, R. & New, M. (2018). Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017. Environmental Research Letters. 13. 124010. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9.


Parker, H.R., Cornforth, R.J., Suarez, P., Allen, R.M., Boyd. E., James, R., Jones,  R.G., Otto, F.E.L. and Walton, P. (2016). Using a Game to Engage Stakeholders in Extreme Event Attribution Science. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 7 (4): 353-365.

Patt, A.G., Suarez, P. and Hess, U. (2010). How much do smallholder farmers understand and want insurance? Evidence from Africa. Global Environmental Change 20 (1): 153-161.

Patt, A.G., Peterson, N, Carter. M, Velez, M., Hess, U. and Suarez, P. (2009). Making index insurance attractive to farmers. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 14: 737-757.

Patt, A. G., Suarez, P. and Gwata, C. (2005). Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102 (35): 12623-12628.

Philip, S., Kew, S., Van Oldenborgh, G., Aalbers, E., Vautard, R., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Habets, F., and Singh, R. (2018). Validation of a rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France to climate change. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 19. 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0074.1.

Philip, S., Kew, S., Van Oldenborgh, G, Otto, F., O’Keefe, S., Haustein, K., King, A., Zegeye, A., Eshetu, Z., Hailemariam, K., Singh, R., Jjemba, E., Funk, C., and Cullen, H. (2017). Attribution Analysis of the Ethiopian Drought of 2015. Journal of Climate. 31. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0274.1.

Philip, S., Sparrow, S., Kew, S., van der Wiel, K., Wanders, N., Singh, R., Hassan, A., Mohammed, K., Javid, H., Haustein, K. Otto, F., Hirpa, F., Rimi, R.H., Islam, A., Wallom, D. and Van Oldenborgh, G. (2019). Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 23. 1409-1429. 10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019.


Scott, AlA., Misiani, H., Okoth, J., Jordan, A., Gohlke, J., Ouma, G., Arrighi, J., Zaitchik, B., Jjemba, E., Verjee, S., Waugh, D. (2017) Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi. PLoS ONE 12(11): e0187300.

Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk and M.A. van Aalst (2011) Projected changes in extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming, Part II: East Africa, J. Clim., 24, 3718-3733

Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., Coughlan de Perez, E., Warrick, O., Suarez, P., Koelle, B., Jjemba, E., van Aalst,  M.K., Roberts,  D.C., Pörtner, H.O. and Jones, R.G. (2018): International Conference on Climate Risk Management, inputs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Climate and Development. DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2018.1521331.

Solinska-Nowak A, Magnuszewski P, Curl M, French A, Keating A, Mochizuki J, Liu W, Mechler R, et al. (2018). An overview of serious games for disaster risk management – Prospects and limitations for informing actions to arrest increasing risk. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 31: 1013-1029. DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.09.001.

Suarez, P. (2017).  Virtual reality for a new climate: Red Cross innovations in risk management. Australian Journal  of Emergency Management 32 (2): 11-14.

Suarez, P. and  van Aalst, M. K. (2017). Geoengineering: a humanitarian concern. Earth’s Future 5 (2): 183-195. doi:10.1002/2016EF000464.

Suarez, P. (2015). Rethinking engagement: Innovations in how humanitarians explore geoinformation. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 4 (3): 1729-1749.

Suarez, P., Bachofen, C., van Aalst, M., Huq, S., Dupar, M. and Juichiro , S. (2013). Development & Climate Days at COP 18: Meeting Report. Climate and Development 5 (2): 182-185.

Suarez, P., and Linnerooth-Bayer, J. (2010). Microinsurance for local adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1 (2): 271-278.

Suarez, P., Blackstock, J., and  van Aalst, M. (2010). Towards a people-centered framework for geoengineering governance: a humanitarian perspective. Geoengineering Quarterly 1 (1): 2-4.

Suarez, P., Saunders, G., Mendler, S., Lemaire, I., Karol, J. and Curtis, L. (2008). Climate related disasters: Humanitarian challenges and design opportunities. Places 20 (2): 62-67.

Suarez, P., Ching, F., Ziervogel, G., Lemaire, I., Turnquest, D., Mendler de Suarez, J., and Wisner, B. (2008). Video-mediated approaches for community-level climate adaptation. IDS Bulletin 39 (4): 96-104.

Suarez, P., Anderson, W.A., Mahal, V. and Lakshmanan, T. R. (2005). Assessing the impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: A systemwide approach for the Boston Metro Area. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 10 (3): 231-244.

Svoboda, T., Buck, H.J. and Suarez, P. (2018). Climate engineering and human rights. Environmental Politics. doi: 10.1080/09644016.2018.1448575


Tadross, M., Suarez, P., Lotsch, A., Hachigonta, S., Mdoka, M., Unganai, L., Lucio, F., Kamdonyo, D. and Muchinda, M. (2009). Growing-season rainfall and scenarios of future change in southeast Africa: implications for cultivating maize. Climate Research 40: 147-161.

Tall, A., Mason, van Aalst, M. S., Suarez, P., Ait-Chellouche, Y., Diallo, A.A., and Braman, L. (2012). Using seasonal forecasts to guide disaster management: The Red Cross experience during the 2008 West Africa floods. International Journal of Geophysics 2012:1-12, doi:10.1155/2012/986016.

Towner, Jamie, Hannah L Cloke, Ervin Zsoter, Zachary Flamig, Jannis M Hoch, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M Stephens. Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 23 (7): 3057-3080.

Tozier de la Poterie, A., Jjemba, E., Singh, R., Coughlan de Perez, E., Costella, C., Arrighi, J. (2018). Understanding the Use of 2015–2016 El Niño Forecasts in Shaping Early Humanitarian Action in Eastern and Southern Africa. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.025.

Tozier de la Poterie, A. S., Jjemba, W. E., Singh, R., Coughlan de Perez, E., Costella, C. V., & Arrighi, J. (2018), “Understanding the use of 2015–2016 El Niño forecasts in shaping early humanitarian action in Eastern and Southern Africa” in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30(February), 81–94.


Uhe, P., Philip, S., Kew, S., Shah, K., Kimutai, J., Mwangi, E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Jjemba, E., Cullen, H. and Otto, F. (2017), Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought. Int. J. Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.5389

Ulrichs, M., Slater, R., & Costella, C. (2019). “Building resilience to climate risks through social protection: from individualised models to systemic transformation” in Disasters, 43(S3), S368–S387.


Van Aalst, M.K (2008) Communicating climate change. Forced Migration Review, 31, 57-58.

Van Aalst, M.K., I. Burton and T. Cannon (2008), Community-based climate risk reduction, Adaptation to climate change and Red Cross / Red Crescent Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments, Global Environmental Change, 18, 165–179.

Van Aalst, M.K. (2006) Taking Climate Risk into Account, Environmental Finance, 8(2), S16-17.

Van Aalst, M.K. (2006) The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters, Disasters, 30(1), 5−18.

Van Aalst, M.K., J. Lelieveld, B. Steil, C. Bruehl, P. Joeckel, M. Giorgetta, and G.-J. Roelofs (2004), Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged four-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation, Atmos. Phys. Chem. Disc., 5, 961-1006.

Van Aalst, M.K., M.M.P. van den Broek, A. Bregman, C. Bruehl, B. Steil, G.C. Toon, S. Garcelon, G. M. Hansford, R.L. Jones, T.D. Gardiner, G.J. Roelofs, J. Lelieveld, and P.J. Crutzen (2004), Trace gas transport in the 1999/2000 Arctic winter; comparison of nudged GCM runs with observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 81-93.

Van Sluis, E. and M.K. van Aalst (2006) Climate change and disaster risk in urban environment, Humanitarian Exchange, 35, 20-23.

Van den Broek, M.M.P., van Aalst, M.K., Bregman, A., Krol, M., Lelieveld, J., Toon, G.C., Garcelon, S., Hansford, G.M., Jones, R.L., and Gardiner, T.D. (2003), The impact of model grid zooming on tracer transport in the 1999/2000 Arctic polar vortex, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 1833-1847.

Van Aalst, M.K., P.C.H. Martens, and A.J.C. Belien (1999), Can Streamer Blobs prevent the Buildup of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field?, Astrophys. J. Lett., 511, L125-L128.

Vautard, R., Van Oldenborgh, G., Otto, F., Yiou, P., de Vries, H., Meijgaard, E., Stepek, A., Soubeyroux, J., Philip, S., Kew, S., Costella, C.,Singh, R., and Tebaldi, Claudia. (2019). Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018. Earth System Dynamics. 10. 271-286. 10.5194/esd-10-271-2019.


Walker, G. and Arrighi, J. (2015) “The CSC dilemma in development: A possible solutionMedia Development, Vol 3/2015 No. 4

Walker, G. and Arrighi, J. (2013) “Participatory Video as a Catalyst for Informal Learning and Expression: A review of a PV training in Uganda 2012” Learning Landscapes, Ontario Canada, Vol 6, No. 2

Ward, PJ, Jongman B, Salamon P, Simpson A, Bates P, De Groeve T, Muis S, Coughlan de Perez E, Rudari R, Trigg M, Winsemius H. 2015. Usefulness and Limitations of Global Flood Risk Models. Nature Climate Change 5 (8). Nature Publishing Group: 712–15. doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

Warrick O., Aalbersberg W., Dumaru P., McNaught R., & Teperman K. (2017) The ‘Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities. Regional Environmental Change, 17:1039-1051

White CJ, Carlsen H, Robertson AW, Klein RJT, Lazo J, Kumar A, Vitart F, Coughlan de Perez, E, et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorol Appl. doi:10.1002/met.1654.

van der Wiel, K., Kapnick, S. B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Whan, K., Philip, S., Vecchi, G. A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., and Cullen, H. (2017): Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897-921,